STI Update

Just when I said STI has turned into a sell for me on New Year's eve, it got a big boost from the "fiscal cliff" or the lack of it and fly up to the sky. hahaha

STI formed a doji today. It is an indication that the bulls and bears are "fighting it out". Watch out for a potential formation of the evening doji star.

My view remained the same that upside is limited with downside potential in January. I will not 'chase' the STI stocks (generally speaking) and the previous correction target remain the same. Let's see how it pans out in the coming days.

Happy trading.

Straits Time Index

I am back after another trip last week.

While i was overseas, it was interesting to read "bullish headlines" about how the market will gain another 25-30% or resumes its uptrend in 2013. As usual, the crystal ball grazing provides tons of fun but little value. In fact, it might act as a good indication of an imminent correction that always occur whenever the headlines of local newspaper turned bullish (the reverse is true as well).

STI has turned into a sell for me today. My first target is around 3100, followed by 3050.

Hope all readers have a happy and prosperous 2013.

STI and Sarin

Let's do a quick update on STI.

Further to my post on 8 Sep 2012, STI has moved above 3050. I see some traders doing 'short trades', my personal opinion is to play stocks on the long side for now as STI has seemed to resume its uptrend and most stocks are trending up and taking turns to be a dog. haha.  STI should be able to break its resistance at 3090 in the coming days.

Anyway, i was lucky to bite the bullet and took a long position in Sarin on Thursday morning. Otherwise, it will be another lamenting post. One thing good about illiquid stock is it moves up and down very fast... hahaha... now that i have entered the positions and the stock has moved up quickly, there are a few ways to trade this. Choose one that meets your personality and style.

(1) Sell some at current levels and let the remaining ride the trend with a moving stop.

(2) Ride the trend but put a moving stop (meaning i will liquidate my position if the price hit the stop price). Move the stop to around 98c.

(3) Sell all at the resistance levels of between 104-108.

(4) Ride the trend till the sell signals appear.

Happy trading. Enjoy while the diamond sparkles.

STI - update

Lets do a quick update to my earlier posting on the STI on 28 Aug 2012.

STI is at a very interesting juncture. Yesterday's price action showed its indecision when it closed off the day with a "doji'. (Doji -means opening and closing price are very near each other in candlestick terms).

However, the most interesting part is that the trend is at a cross junction. The EMA 13 has just cut the EMA 26. I highlight the 2 points in time where the 2 cut in the last 6 months. One was the red arrow in May and the other was the green arrow in late June. For STI to overcome its 'bearish bias', it will need to move and trade above 3050 in the coming days. Otherwise, this may just be a counter-trend move with a target of 2950.

Let's see how it perform in the coming days and i will keep you posted again.

STI update

The market seemed to have come to a standstill and is in a 'neither here nor there' stance. The market seemed like it doesn't want to run up but at the same time it doesn't smell bearish either.

I am taking a view that the market is poised for a correction but trading sideways for now waiting for news. This is consistent with my earlier view. 

I am not taking any short term positions until the signs are clearer. The beauty of a small time player like me is that i decide when to play the market. Unlike a unit trust manager who has to long the market all the time, the small trader has the luxury to choose the timing as he or she can enter or exit the market pretty quickly.

Imagine the difference between managing a $100m portfolio versus a $1m portfolio. The one with the larger portfolio will not be as nimble and will probably has to take a long term view and position whereas the one with the smaller portfolio will be able to react quicker and faster. 

No position is a position

For a discretionary trader like myself who trades only when my work schedule permits, deciding when to trade is a right which i enjoy. I decide when to play the market at my terms, hence if i am unsure, i will just stay out of the market and watch from the sidelines. I don't have to trade everyday since i have a full time job. Unlike someone who is a full time trader, he or she may not enjoy such luxury but the good thing is he can watch the market all day long. haha. Anyway, always remember that no position is a position. :)  

In this instance, i will stay on the sidelines as my view of STI remained the same. It will trade sideways with downward bias.

Happy Trading.

Closing off Indoagri position and STI update

I closed off my Indoagri position yesterday and today at average of 1.44. Time to stay aside and watch again.

My "sell" signals are triggered for STI, and i think STI is due for some correction and consolidation.

STI Update - 1 Aug 2012

STI looked like it is going to have a National Day Rally! It broke above the key 3,035 resistance after 4 failed attempts that lasted since March this year. Usually, if a resistance breaks after 3 attempts, I would classify it as a significant break. This is somewhat surprising since the situation in Europe is still unclear but something you may want to bear in mind is that stock market usually moves 6-9 months ahead of fundamentals. Happy trading!

STI Update

The STI is pretty undecided as you can see by the long tail it formed today. I would have called this a potential shooting star in candlestick term if it had occurred at the top of the trend. The parabolic is still in the bearish mode and STI seemed to be waiting for something to happen?! Anyway, watch your stops while you trade. The market can get a little whippy from here, maybe affected by sentiments in the US reporting season although i have to admit that the undertone seemed to be firm.

I have decided to continue posting my views but probably not the trades as they are not timely and the timeframe is very different... and it may cause more harm than good and may act as an unnecessary inducement to trade even though i have a disclaimer on top.... but no worries, i will continue to share whenever the time permits. Happy trading.

STI, CapMallAsia and Capitaland

Lets do a quick recap on my previous postings:

CapMallAsia hit my first target of 1.55 today. There is still some way for this correction to run and will probably head towards my second target.

STI - As mentioned in my update yesterday, i am bearish on the STI and has initiated a short position via July SIMSCI this morning. STI is probably heading towards 2950 followed by 2900.

Capitaland - Initiate a short position in Capitaland at 288. First target at 275 followed by 260. Cut loss just above recent high.  

Overall, i think the market sentiments is weak and many stocks look very weak to me. So do take precaution if you intend to take long positions.

STI update

The STI recovered strongly today even though US markets were weak last night. The undertone is firm and underwriters would want the buoyant mood to continue so that they can launch the IPOs. Many companies are trying to catch this window and 2 business trusts have lodged their prospectus with SGX in recent days. STI continues to look healthy and may test the 3,000-3,300 range in the coming days. A convincing break above 3,300 will be bullish as it has failed to cross that in the previous few attempts. Having said that, the resistance is a strong one. Traders may want to tighten their stops as the STI runs up.

STI - Tighten your stops.

It might be a good idea to tighten the stops around your positions in STI. The parabolic is in danger of being triggered in the coming days.