Recap - Sembcorp, Sembmarine, Noble and Olam

Just to a quick recap of the various positions i mentioned last week plus olam.

Sembcorp Industries

My initial post was here. The stock hit my initial target today. Still looking strong. Let's see if it can hit the $5.30 - $5.40 target in the coming days.

Sembmarine

My initial post was here. Hit my first target today. Let's see if can reach $4.70 - $4.80.

Noble

My initial post was here. The counter was actually on trek a few days back when it touches 1.11 but unfortunately, i think it was also dragged down by the muddy waters incident. My view of a rebound back to 115 is still intact.

Olam

While this is not exactly my favorite counter in terms investing, it is nevertheless "too late" to short now unless you see a meaningful rebound back to $1.80 area or a decisive break below 1.50. In any case, there are no scrips available and from what i understand, the scrips were loaned out at 10% p.a. I think a short squeeze for a rebound back to $1.70-1.80 is on the cards. The Muddy water report has been released and the link is here --> http://www.muddywatersresearch.com/research/olam/initiating-coverage-olam/

SembCorp Industries

Sembcorp Industries looked ripe for a rebound back to the 5.10 to 5.20 region (first target) and we shall see how it performed from there on whether it can hit 5.30 to 5.40. (second target).

Sembcorp Industries

CapitaRetailChina & Sembmarine

Two nice looking charts to share.

CapitaRetailChina

CapitaRetailChina

Spotted this when it was around 150-152. Neat cut loss below recent low and target a swing back to 158-160 (first target).

SembMarine

Sembmarine. A rebound back to 4.40-4.60 on the cards?

Time to be Noble?

Noble looked interesting for a short term counter-trend trade. It has a bullish harami the day before and 1.05 seemed to be a strong support that extends all the way back to 2011. The founder and CEO have bought back the shares at around 1.08 in the last few days and that could provide an interim support for this counter. The reasons for its huge drop last week was due to "below than expectation" results and that one of its 3rd largest shareholder, Harry Banga, placed out $200m worth of shares.

Daily Chart

Daily Chart

The target for the rebound will be around 115-118 with a stop loss below 1.02. Given that this is a counter trend trade, it will be wise to be nimble and much will depends on how the US markets perform this week.

Weekly Chart

Weekly chart

You can see that it took 12 weeks to move from 1.08 to 1.35 but only 2 weeks to move from 1.35 back to 1.08.....

Watch the STI neckline!

I have shared with you on stars gazing and on hammers. Today i share with you the neckline and how to do a projection if the neckline is 'broken'. 

The neckline of STI is around 2,980. If the neckline is breached, it usually means an ugly show as you will lose the pants as well. 

The STI looks like forming a double top formation. To project the downside, simple use 2980 (neckline) less the sum of [3,088 (around the high of the double top) - 2,980 (neckline)] = 2,872 (downside projection target)

   

Trading is a probability game and this is my current view on STI should the neckline be breached. If it comes, it is usually fast and furious.

I will usually not trade unless i am either shorting or until i see clearer buy signals. Happy trading.

Watch out for the hammers

Not sure if you remember my post on "the stars are starting to appear..."back on 18 Sep.

Today I write the other version of it. Watch out for the hammers and this will be how i can potentially trade it.

Hammer

As in a shooting star, the hammer in the candlestick is the other opposite version of a reversal signal at the end of the "correction". The aggressive trader will buy near the close of 1.07 yesterday and put a stop loss at 1.02. The less aggressive trader can buy this morning and use the same stop. The first target will be around 112-114, the second target will be around 116-120 and the more aggressive target will be around 122-124. Since the price has already moved up, i will also move the stop to around 106 to ride the stock.

Shooting stars again?

GLP and Osim showed shooting stars today and i will usually tighten my stops if i am trading the position.

Happy trading.