Osim International

I have been very busy with work that i need to tap into technology to help me trade again. I also don't want to be a slave to the market next time and be glued to the screen.

I will try to spend one hr every night to see if there are any potential trades worth considering and if there are, i will share them here before i enter the trade myself so that you can learn how to trade yourself.

The above is one trade i have keyed in. To buy Osim at 150 and if that is done, to sell at around 170 and cut loss below 140.

Ninja Trading Strategy

This is the last part of my strategy series where i will talk about my "Ninja Master Fund". The trading strategy is here. After this I can just concentrate on other things.

Why the fascination with Ninja?

You must be wondering why i named it ninja. That is because of a few reasons:

• Candlesticks is part of my toolkit and that originates from rice traders in Japan (not to mention i love travelling in Japan).
• Ninjas are like assassins. You kill silently and this is how you should behave in the stock market. Ins and Outs with precision and quietly.
• Ninjas are ruthless... in that i mean ruthless in cutting losses when i am wrong.
• Ninjas are flexible... can long and short any positions and play any instruments.
• Ninjas are mysterious... you hide behind a veil. :-P

Anyway, I now managed my own trading account. I used to manage money for other people but i have stopped doing that because i just don't have the time to do it anymore. So instead of looking after other people's money, i decided that 'reporting' to myself is easier and stress free since i hate losing money for friends....

Trading Capital

In trading, you need a decent capital size. Otherwise, it is pretty difficult for proper money management and to take a decent position. Let me use a "story to illustrate" why trading is like a business.

Mr. IPO has finally decided to become an entrepreneur... You must be wondering what business he has gone into and whether he is having mid-life crisis.

What is the business model? Let me give you some clues. 

Business model

It is actually quite a simple business. Mr. IPO has decided to be more adventurous and started an "import and export" trading company. Import things which people wants from all around the world (stock exchanges) and then sell them for a profit (trading profits). 

Inventory (aka stocks)

In this business, you need to stock up on goods. The inventory to stock up depends on what people wants to buy. On some days, they may want to buy an Apple iPod and on other days, they are interested to buy an OSIM massage chair. You can also use Alibaba to source for the products but you can even use PayPal to pay for your inventory. You use DHL to deliver the goods and the inventory will be kept in a warehouse managed by Global Logistics. Sometimes I may also stock up on brent and in other times, I may hoard gold.

Some inventory can be sold within days (swing trade) and some takes a much longer time to sell (trend trading). Sometimes you can sell the inventory without owning them too! (CFDs and Futures)

Banking facility (aka leverage)

In any business, you will need to have a liquidity facility. When the demand is strong, you may want to import more goods using leverage. You can also pay them in SGD or USD depending on how you foresee the forex movements. Euros is currently a dirty word. (I haven't trade in forex yet...but the leverage is very attractive... but imagine you short CHF and go bust....over leverage can kill you too...)

Minimizing the cost of doing business 

If you intend to trade for a living, you must find the cheapest cost of doing business. I think i have one of the lowest costs around. I used to aspire to be a broker/dealer one day but i think the margins are just too low, so i have since given up that "aspiration."

Below are some of the rates which i get.... 

Solid Platform

I need a solid platform that can place in complicated orders like OCO, Buy Stop, etc... so if you are contemplating full time trading, you will need a good trading system as well but if you are an investor... then this is not as critical.

Ninja Master Fund

Ninja Master Fund has a capital of $250,000....but because i have no time to trade and monitor the market, I actually set a very low return target of around 10% to 25% for the entire year. Let's see if i can achieve it by end of this year.... so far it's off to a slow start... trading in Apple, Simsci and CWT... 

Happy trading :)

Ezion Limited

I refer to my last trade in Ezion Limited where i didn't abide my own trading rules and have to "pay school fees" ^_^.

Today i entered the same position again at 1.50 with an initial cut loss below 1.42.

At the point of my entry, the first target was 1.58-1.62 and the second target was 1.66-1.70. Now that the price has moved up, the cut loss should move to around 1.51 thereabouts.

I also want to say that this will probably be my last end of day "live" trade post as my busy work and travel schedule is having a toil for me to blog live at the same time. I will share more about my thoughts in a separate post in SRS Fund.

Happy trading 

Ezion Limited

Entered this trade today for a short reversal swing trade at 1.59 today. The candle stick pattern is belt-hold.

First Target around 166-170 and Second Target around 172-176. Cut loss around 154.

Super Group Ltd

Entered this stock today at $1.365. First target is the gap around $1.44 to $1.48 and the second target is around $1.50 to $1.54

The cut loss will be around $1.33

Happy trading.

Just to share on my earlier trades.

Halcyon hits my first target of $0.88 (entry at 83c) and Kris Energy hit my second target of 83c (entry at 75c)

RH Petrogas hit my first target of 85c but i didn't exit and it hit my moving stop at 80.5c (entry at 79c). 

Happy trading.

RH Petrogas and 2 "live" trading practical tests for you!

Entered this transaction at 79 today. My gut feel is that this stock is about to run with the Bollinger Band tightening and increased in volume. First target will be between 85-90c with a cut loss around 70c.

There are a few other counters with interesting set ups which i observed. I list some of them below for your own 'training'. You will have to learn how to fish them yourself but master the basics of cutting loss is absolutely necessary before you embark on the trading journey.

• Biosensors showing a nice doji with volume at 72.5c. It allows for a counter trend trade with a tight cut loss. Assuming i enter at 72.5c, you tell me what is the target for this rebound and the cut loss level. You can either leave your comments here or in my facebook page.

• Rex International allows for a counter trend trade and a tight cut loss as well. Assuming I enter at 59c, what would be the target and cut loss level.

Happy fishing.

Halcyon Agri and Kris Energy

Entered two trades today. Halcyon Agri. Enter at 83c. First target around 88-90 and second target around 93-95. Cut loss below 78c (i am giving it more lee way).

Enter around 75. First target 78-80c. Second target around 83-85. Cut loss below 70c.

Global Logistics

Entered this trade on Friday at $2.68. First target around 277-280 and second target around 285-288.  Cut loss below the 260 thereabouts.

Fundamentally the stock should ride on the e-commerce success in Asia, especially China and the company has many analysts with buy calls on it and target price >$3. However, the valuation is too rich for my liking. For this space, I prefer CWT and is looking to enter CWT for my SRS account for a longer term play.

Happy trading.

Sino Grandness

Executed a trade at 66.5 cents this morning. First target 70-72c, followed by 74-78c. Cut loss below 64 thereabouts.

The counter is really "good value" and would have qualified for a fundamental buy except that it is a China stock and you know lah... my bad experience in S-Chips. 

I will just trade it instead.

Happy trading.

RH Petrogas

Entered this trade at 55 cents today. First target 58c-60c and second target around 62c-64c.

Cut loss below 50c for now.

Happy trading.

AIMS REIT & Capitaland

Entered 2 more trading positions today.

AIMSAMPI REIT

Entered at 1.435. First target 1.48-1.50. Second target 1.55-1.58. Cut loss below 1.35 for now.

Capitaland

Entered at 3.02. First target 3.15-3.20. Second target 3.25-3.30. Cut loss below 2.92 for now.

Feeling nostalgic

I was hoping to enter some positions yesterday only to realize that the market was on half day. Haha. I am anticipating a run up post Christmas and all the way to Chinese New Year. 

Anyway, I am in a cleaning mood today and was packing my study when I come across my old trading journal. 

Wow I don't even have the disc reader anymore. Haha. Alamak.

Which is why I think blogging is good in the sense that I don't lose the content as long as google (who owns blogger) don't go bust ah...

I bought two books today. Will share with you later after I finish packing! 

Pardon the non stop postings... Since i am clearing leave. Hahaha..

Suntec REIT

Entered a trading position on Suntec REIT today at 1.51.

My first target will be 1.57 followed by 1.64. Cut loss will leave it wide for now at around 1.45. 

This will be the continuation of the fire and forget strategy which i am embarking.

I have not been trading since 3 Oct 2013 as i have been really busy with work! wow.... really ate grass for more than 2 months but maybe eating grass is not that bad under current trading sentiments where it is down trending all the way.. :P

Happy trading.

Ninja Master Fund - Interim Results

As promised, I will do regular update on the capital account of Ninja Master Fund, which i use mainly for the "fire & forget" strategy.

My previous update was here and i started this account on 1 April this year with $100,000.

As of 30 Sep 2013, after the 4 trades in Sep, the capital account increased to $109k. Let's see if i can hit $120k within one year and the return would be 20%. 

One thing you may want to take note is never force a trade. When I look at a chart and the chart doesn't shout "buy me buy me" to me, I will give it a miss.

The problem with new traders is to "overtrade" when they are on a 'winning streak'. In other words, taking a trade even when it is not compelling to do so or the risk-reward is not too good. You will have to learn to overcome that "trigger-happy urge" to prevent over-trading.

I will continue to share my trades if i see some compelling setups. I will be busy travelling again in Oct and Nov... :(

Happy trading ^_^

Update on "Fire & Forget" Strategy

The Fire and Forget Strategy has been panning out better than i expect.

I entered 4 positions using this strategy as i was busy travelling this month.

Capitaland @ 303 on 4 Sep 2013

CapRetailChina @ 1.355 and CourtsAsia @ 0.725 on 11 Sep 2013

KrisEnergy @ 1.17 on 16 Sep 2013

Capitaland hit my target of >320 on 19 Sep 2013 which was automatically taken out by my earlier orders. 

Court Asia hit my target of 80c yesterday and the trade was executed.

In case you are wondering what a OCO means. It means Order Cancel Order. Just to give you a simple illustration, i keyed in 3 different orders at the same time prior to a trade. The logic goes like that, if my trade in CapRChina is done at 1.355, i will enter 2 simultaneous sell orders (A) to take profit at 1.50 or to cut my loss at 1.30.

The screen shot below shows that trade.

 

In the event that either one order is fulfilled, the other will be cancelled automatically as they are tagged together. However, I can change my prices post that trade if i want to. For example, i can change my stop loss price of CapRChina from the initial 1.30 to a "stop profit" price of 1.36 now that the share price has moved up to 1.42. My target price remained at 1.50 but i may change it if i don't like what i am seeing in the coming days.

In an ideal world, i should be reviewing my trades every night to change and adjust my plan accordingly without the market trading noise. I have to admit that such trading strategy is good in the sense that it took out the emotions in my trade as i don't have to watch the market during trade hours but to look at it objectively only after trading hours.

Happy trading. STI is looking toppish to me and may need to consolidate a while in the near term. Actually i spotted the bottom of STI in late Aug prior to my trip and sometimes, inaction is really expensive but hopefully, the fire and forget strategy can reduce that opportunity costs. ^_^

KrisEnergy

Enter this trade today at 1.17. First target around 121-123 followed by 125-128 if there is follow thru buying.

Happy trading.

Courts Asia & Cap Retail China

Enter 2 positions today using "fire & forget" techniques as i am going to travel again... :(

CapitaRetail China

First target around 138-140 and second target around 146-148. Cut loss below recent low.

Courts Asia

Price fall probably because market is disappointed with Q1 results and the falling Indonesian Rupiah. I think it is overdone but volume is quite low so the stop loss you put has to be wider to avoid be "whipped sawed".

First target 75-78 and Second target around 80-84. 

A bio "Heartbreak" and Capitaland

I was preparing for my trip last week and i spotted this potential swing trade on Biosensors on Friday.

I was contemplating a trade at 84c and would have gotten in easily but i was hesitating as I am leaving the weekend to London. I would have bought Biosensors at 84 and the targets would have been around 92 and 98 with a stop loss below the recent low. Anyway, i didnt execute the trade but wonder why I didn't "fire and forget" as i have intended to.

Anyway, i have decided to try it out on the next trade i spotted, which is Capitaland to test out my theory of "fire and forget".

Enter at 3.03. First target around 312-315 and second target around 320-325. Cut loss below 292. 

Happy trading. 

China Minzhong - not another Scandal?

This must be the most disastrous "anniversary" for China Minzhong ("CMZ") shareholders with the Company scheduled to announce its results for on 29 Aug 2013 before trading hours.

I wrote this piece of article about one year ago on 28 Aug 2012 - China Minzhong - the analysts don't get it when share price dropped dramatically after its Q4 results and this time around, another "Carson Block" type of firm called Glaucus Research Group is out to "finish" China Minzhong once and for all with a target price of zero!

The report is here. It is a very depressing read and contain several allegations which you should read it even if you are not a shareholder.

It will be interesting to see how the Board of Directors react to the allegations mentioned, especially the non-executive members. At the time of my writing, they are probably in deep discussions with external counsel, auditors and management. Based on the annual report in 2012, the non-executive board members in the hot seat consist of the following members:

1. Lee Edan Kietchai, Managing Director of Olympus Capital
2. Wang Anson, Co Founder and Managing Partner of CMIA Capital Partners
3. Lim Yeow Hua, Consultant
4. Heng Hang Siong, Management Consultant
5. Lim Gee Kiat, SVP Finance to Ying Li International

I highlight the two more prominent non-independent directors below.

Edan Lee and Anson Wang are deemed to be non-independent because their funds hold a huge stake in CMZ. The following table is from last year's annual report.

CMIA Capital Partners first became "famous" because of Ferro China blow up previously. Will it be twice unlucky for them? Somehow, it looks weird when other shareholders hold more shares than the founder. 

The auditors Crowe Horwath First Trust LLP must also be feeling the heat now. The audit partner was previously on the board of China Hongxing. It is always a risk to be a board member on S-Chips, especially the Independent directors.

A Company that is always in need of cash?

Sounds so familiar for companies in trouble as they always need capital because they are cash flow negative and can never afford to pay out a dividend. PT Indofood (ticker code: INDF.JK) holds 29.33% of the Company after they subscribed to another 98m shares at $1.12 per share in Feb 2013. The share price of PT Indofood dropped 5.6% versus the 47% drop by CMZ today.

In case you are interested to know if your reserves are safe, GIC fully divested its stake in March this year. 

The weekly share price chart looks downright ugly and hit a all-time low today at $0.50. You know my dislike for S-Chips and in a hypothetical situation where i am ever vested, my usual method is to cut loss first (to preserve capital) and think later. I will not average down. Cutting loss is an "competitive edge" which small investors like you and me have but will be more difficult for big funds and shareholders. 

S-Chip Scandals

Here you go. The list of S Chips that bite the dust and if this one goes as well, frankly, I don't know what other S-Chips you should consider. While i was contemplating a "short sale" on CMZ and Sino Grandnes today. 

In any case, there are not many options available to the BOD. I outline a few for you.

1. Refute all the allegations and promise to sue Glaucus Research Group. This is followed by major shareholders coming in to support the shares (most optimistic outcome).
2. Convene special auditors to investigate the allegations and in the meantime, the independent board and shareholders have countless sleepless nights.(most probable outcome)
3. A fire breaks out at the finance department in the factory and the independent board and auditors resign shortly thereafter, citing uncooperative management. (most dramatic but likely outcome).

My view is option 2 is the most likely outcome for the short term and given the track record of Galucus, i think it will eventually lead to outcome 3.

I certainly hope i will not see another scandal (where our hard-earned money are being conned) but history is against us.

Comfort Delgro & CapmallAsia

I spotted Comfort Delgro last week but was too busy trying to set up SaxoCFDs that i missed it, only to realized that the Saxo Plaform for CFDs for local stocks sucks. There is very limited number of shares available on Saxo for shorting. If you want to trade local CFDs, still think POEMS is the best platform to do so, especially "short" trades.

Anyway, i share this trade so that you will have a better idea how to do a projection on the target.

I wanted to short this counter at 1.96 when the parabolic is triggered. Parabolic is one of the indicators i like to use for trading. After you initiate a trade, you can use Fibo to project the possible target with the 50% mark being the "first target" at $1.86 and the second target at the 38.2% mark at $1.82. 

I think another target that will follow in Comfort Delgro footstep is CapmallAsia.

I shorted this counter a few days back at 1.96, using POEMS this time. Again, using parabolic to initiate and fibo to project, the first target is 1.87 followed by 1.82.

Happy trading.

P.S. by the way, i am pretty busy travelling for work.... and will probably be missing in action the most of Sep. :(